INTRODUCTION

Social distancing measures are effective non-pharmaceutical interventions against the rapid spread of epidemics (Bootsma & Ferguson, 2007; Markel et al., 2007; Hatchett et al., 2007; Wilder-Smith & Freedman, 2020). Many countries have implemented measures, such as school closures, prohibition of large gatherings, and restrictions on non-essential stores and transportation to slow down the spread of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic (Anderson et al., 2020; Cohen & Kupferschmidt, 2020; Thompson & Serkez, 2020; “Mayor de Blasio Issues New Guidance to New Yorkers,” 2020). What are the economic effects of such social distancing interventions? Which businesses are most affected by the restrictions? 

Past research has analyzed the efficacy of social distancing interventions in reducing the spread of epidemics using the 1918 Spanish Flu in the U.S. (Hatchett et al., 2007; Markel et al., 2007; Bootsma & Ferguson, 2007) and seasonal viral infections in France (Adda, 2016). However, our knowledge of economic impacts is limited (Wren-Lewis, 2020). For this question, past data may be less relevant, as the importance of face-to-face communication has increased steadily in the last 100 years through urbanization (Henderson, 2010, 2002) and specialization increased in business services as well (Herrendorf et al., 2014; Duarte & Restuccia, 2019). Even if advances in information and communication technology have made it increasingly possible to communicate with co-workers and customers without physical face-to-face interactions, personal contact is still inevitable in some industries (Dingel & Neiman, 2020; Von Gaudecker et al., 2020).

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